On December 29th, 2009 Jason Bay signed a 4-year, $66 million contract with the Mets. Many hopeful Met fans thought he was a lock to play around 150 games, smack 20 homeruns, knock in 100 runs, become their “Big Bopper” in the middle of the lineup, and help the Mets make the playoffs. Well let’s just say it didn’t happen.
Jason Bay’s 2010 season was his worst of his career. He only played in 95 games, a career low, because of concussions and only batted .259/.347.402(Avg/OBP/Slg) with only 6 homeruns and 47 RBI’s. I believe his 2010 was a major fluke just like that 45-3 drubbing the Pats gave to my beloved Jets. It was the first season in which he did not reach 20 homeruns since his 2003 season in which he played just 30 games. His season averages per 162 games are .278/.374/.508 with 30 homeruns and 105 RBI’s. Look for his 2011 season to come closer to those numbers.
Another big factor in why his numbers decreased tremendously was “Citi Field-itis.” I believe he suffered the same type of “thing” David Wright suffered during the 2009 season. Citi Field is one of the most spacious outfields in baseball. It can hurt players by forcing them to over-compensate for the long distances to hit a homerun. I believe Citi Field got into the heads of both Wright and Bay. David Wright only had 10 homeruns and 72 RBI’s in 2009 compared to 29 homeruns and 103 RBI’s in 2010. Look for Bay to conquer Citi Field in 2011 just like the way Wright did in 2010.
So here are my predictions for Jason Bay for this upcoming season and his 2010 numbers and his 162 game averages:
Seasons | Games | Runs | Hits | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | AVG |
162 game average | 162 | 100 | 162 | 34 | 5 | 30 | 105 | .278 |
2010 | 95 | 48 | 90 | 20 | 6 | 6 | 47 | .259 |
2011 | 152 | 90 | 143 | 27 | 7 | 24 | 96 | .268 |
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